The Oscars always tell you what kind of year it’s been – and the 2026 nominations just screamed it in neon: big swings rewarded, sacred cows ignored, and one film outright rewriting the record books.
Because this morning belonged to Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the blood-soaked, genre-bending juggernaut that didn’t just top the nomination leaderboard – it shattered the ceiling entirely. With 16 nominations, Sinners becomes the most-nominated film in Academy Awards history, blowing past the long-standing 14-nomination benchmark held by Titanic, All About Eve and La La Land. Not “most-nominated horror film.” Not “most-nominated of the year.” Ever. And it didn’t achieve that by hiding in the craft categories, either. Sinners landed everywhere that matters: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), supporting nods for Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku, plus screenplay, editing, cinematography, sound, visual effects… the whole works.
If Sinners was the show of force, then Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another was the other heavyweight throwing punches all over the card. It scored 13 nominations, cementing itself as the season’s biggest “serious movie” contender – the one voters can check off while still feeling classy. It’s in picture, directing, editing, and the acting categories for Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (both Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro), and Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor) making it one of the most aggressively star-powered lineups in the race. The result is a top tier that feels increasingly clear: this year’s Oscars are shaping into a two-film brawl, with Sinners as the cultural phenomenon and One Battle After Another as the Academy’s comfort-food prestige pick.
And then there’s Australia, sneaking into the party with a grin and a drink already in hand. Rose Byrne earned a Best Actress nomination for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, a deeply actorly pick that reads like the kind of performance the branch loves to “discover” and then reward. Meanwhile Jacob Elordi continues his awards-season glow-up with a Supporting Actor nomination for Frankenstein.
But for every coronation, the Oscars also demand sacrifice, and this year’s nomination morning delivered one of the nastiest: Wicked: For Good got absolutely wiped out. A full lockout. No techs. No songs. No acting. Nothing. And the loudest absence of all? No Ariana Grande in Supporting Actress, despite the fact she was being treated as an early-season frontrunner when the film first hit. That’s not a gentle snub; that’s the Academy politely slamming the door, deadbolting it, and turning the lights off. Or, in Wicked puns, they dropped a house on the sequel for good.
Elsewhere, the nomination list was dotted with the kind of chaos that makes this whole circus irresistible. One Battle After Another is strong enough to dominate the day – and yet Chase Infiniti still couldn’t crack Best Actress. And while the Best Actress lineup is full of expected heavy hitters, the morning’s biggest raised eyebrow was Kate Hudson turning up in the category for Song Sung Blue. It reads like a surprise, but it’s the classic kind of “surprise” that only shocks people who weren’t paying attention: she was a major precursor presence, and the Academy clearly saw a narrative worth rewarding.
Hamnet also had a strong showing overall – the sort of prestige literary drama voters adore – but it still took a hit where it hurts. Jessie Buckley made Best Actress, the film landed in picture and directing, and yet Paul Mescal missed Supporting Actor. That’s the kind of omission that doesn’t happen because someone “forgot” – it happens because the supporting field is stacked and the passion isn’t as universal as the film’s overall nomination tally suggests. Brutal, but very Oscars.
So what does this all mean for who actually wins? Right now, the season’s shape looks deceptively simple at the top: Sinners versus One Battle After Another. If the Academy wants to crown the year’s defining cultural beast – and they’re already halfway there, given the record haul – Sinners could ride that wave all night long, especially across editing, sound, and the craft races that often build momentum into Best Picture. But if voters decide they want the “classic” winner, the one that looks like it belongs next to past champions, One Battle After Another has the profile of a film that can quietly rack up wins while everyone’s watching the loudest kid in class.
Best Director feels like the purest version of that same fork in the road: Coogler representing bold, urgent spectacle done at the highest level, versus PTA as the auteur the Academy loves to admire – and sometimes, finally, reward. Best Actor is a heavyweight lineup that could go multiple ways, with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sitting in that sweet spot of “performance plus narrative,” while Michael B. Jordan stands poised to benefit if Sinners turns into a full-blown sweep. Best Actress is just as fierce: Buckley, Byrne, Hudson, Emma Stone (Bugonia), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) – a mix of prestige, star power, and the occasional curveball that becomes the night’s headline regardless of who wins; though Buckley and Byrne feel like the final battle.
But the biggest takeaway from this year’s nominations is the mood shift they signal. The Academy didn’t just tolerate a horror-leaning, genre-fuelled blockbuster – it crowned it king of the morning. It treated international contenders like major players rather than side categories. And it reminded everyone that no matter how loud the marketing, how intense the fandom, or how “inevitable” a narrative feels in October, Oscars morning can still arrive like a guillotine.
In other words: the race is on, and it’s already messy – the way it should be.
The Oscars will screen in the United States on March 15th, 2026 at 7pm Eastern / 4pm Pacific, on Hulu. It will screen on Channel 7 and 7 Plus on March 16th in Australia,
